US Counter-UAS Market 2026 Forecast

The US C-UAS market stratifies along four technology axes that reflect distinct procurement pipelines and budget owners. Radio frequency detection and jamming systems (DroneShield, D-Fend Solutions) target the largest share of fixed-site protection contracts because they offer the lowest per-engagement cost and are effective against the consumer-grade quadcopter category that constitutes the majority of fielded threats. Radar-based detection (Hidden Level, Fortem Technologies) addresses the medium and high-altitude threat surface that RF systems cannot reliably cover, with growing demand from base protection and airport security. Electro-optical and infrared tracking (Teledyne FLIR, L3Harris) is a layered capability typically bundled with radar to provide visual identification and engagement authorisation. Kinetic and directed-energy defeat (Epirus high-power microwave, Anduril Lattice-integrated interceptors, CHAOS Industries autonomous engagement) is the fastest-growing segment as the Pentagon prioritises affordable mass against drone swarm threats.

By customer, the US Army and US Air Force account for the majority of C-UAS procurement spend through their respective force protection budgets and the cross-service DAWG envelope. The US Marine Corps fields tactical man-portable systems for expeditionary force protection. The US Navy procures shipboard and base-protection systems. The Department of Homeland Security, FBI, and Secret Service operate under expanded counter-UAS authority granted by the 2018 Preventing Emerging Threats Act and its subsequent renewals. State and local law enforcement face procurement constraints because counter-UAS engagement authority remains restricted under federal law, although detection-only deployments have proliferated.

Vertical applications outside defence and law enforcement are emerging but remain a small share of total spend. Critical infrastructure operators (electric grid, oil and gas, water utilities) procure detection-grade systems to feed security operations centres without engaging targets directly. Stadium and event security has procured detection systems for major sporting and political events, often with FAA coordination for temporary flight restrictions. Airports are slower adopters because of operational integration complexity with controlled airspace, but procurement is accelerating following high-profile drone incursion incidents at major hubs.

Geographically, US C-UAS procurement concentrates in three corridors. The Washington DC region hosts headquarters procurement, capital protection, and federal law enforcement spend. The Southwest border region drives counter-drug and counter-cartel C-UAS deployment. Forward base protection in CENTCOM, INDOPACOM, and EUCOM theatres absorbs the largest operational deployment of tactical and expeditionary systems, although procurement is centralised through CONUS programme offices.

Federal counter-UAS authority in the United States is partitioned among four primary departments and several supporting agencies under a complex statutory framework. The Preventing Emerging Threats Act of 2018 grants the Department of Homeland Security and Department of Justice authority to detect, track, and disrupt unmanned aircraft that pose a threat to designated covered facilities or assets. This authority is delegated to specific operational components including the FBI, US Secret Service, US Coast Guard, and Customs and Border Protection. The act has been renewed multiple times, most recently in 2024, with each renewal cycle adjusting the scope of covered facilities, the types of authorised mitigation actions, and the coordination requirements with the FAA.

The FAA retains primary authority over national airspace and must coordinate with C-UAS operators on any system that uses spectrum, kinetic defeat, or directed energy that could affect manned aviation or licensed communications. The 2024 FAA Reauthorization Act expanded a pilot programme allowing state and local law enforcement to deploy detection-only counter-UAS systems under specific conditions, but engagement authority remained federally restricted until mid-2026. That split bifurcated procurement for most of the market's history: state and local agencies could purchase detection systems but not defeat systems, narrowing the addressable market for vendors selling integrated detect-track-defeat platforms to non-federal customers.

The Department of Defense operates under separate statutory authority granted by Title 10 of the US Code and a series of National Defense Authorization Act provisions. NDAA Section 1697 (FY2020) and subsequent annual NDAA provisions have progressively expanded DoD counter-UAS authority on military installations and to protect US forces operating abroad. The 2025 NDAA further codified procurement priorities and accelerated acquisition pathways for counter-UAS systems through the Joint Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office (JCO), which serves as the lead organisation for joint requirements, capabilities, and material solutions across the services.

The Federal Communications Commission regulates the radio frequency spectrum used by both drone command links and counter-drone jamming systems. Vendors selling RF jamming systems must navigate FCC equipment authorisation requirements, which historically created barriers to commercial off-the-shelf RF defeat systems. The 2024 Spectrum Innovation Act streamlined some of these requirements for federal users, but state and local procurement of RF jamming remained effectively prohibited outside specific federal-coordination scenarios.

That authorisation perimeter has now moved, and it is the most consequential regulatory change in the market's history. The June 2025 executive order Restoring American Airspace Sovereignty established a federal task force, directed the creation of a National Training Center for counter-UAS, and framed protection of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics as forcing events (Federal Register). The SAFER SKIES Act, passed in December 2025 within the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, extended counter-UAS authority beyond the federal government, and the joint Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security interim final rule implementing it took effect on 1 July 2026, with a two-tier certification structure separating detection-and-warning operations from mitigation operations (Federal Register). Drone Intelligence assessment: the rule converts tens of thousands of state, local, tribal and territorial law enforcement and correctional agencies from a detection-only market into prospective defeat buyers under a single national standard. Vendors already certified into federal frameworks, and those with established law-enforcement channels, will convert installed credibility into SLTT pipeline fastest.

Counter-UAS technology has matured rapidly between 2020 and 2026, driven by combat lessons from Ukraine, the demonstrated effectiveness of low-cost drone attacks in the Middle East, and Pentagon procurement priorities that have favoured rapid fielding over deliberate development cycles. The first generation of fielded systems comprised standalone detection or defeat capabilities with limited cross-system integration. The second generation, currently dominant in active procurement, is defined by integrated detect-track-identify-defeat architectures running on common command-and-control software, with Anduril Lattice emerging as the de facto US Army standard following the 2026 enterprise contract award.

High-power microwave (HPM) systems represent the most significant capability inflection in counter-drone defeat. Epirus Leonidas, deployed with the US Army, demonstrates the ability to disable multiple drones simultaneously across a wide engagement arc at a per-engagement cost orders of magnitude below kinetic interceptors. HPM is particularly effective against drone swarm threats, where kinetic interceptor magazine depth becomes the limiting factor in conventional air defence engagement models. Procurement of HPM systems is accelerating across Army, Marine Corps, and base-protection requirements, with multiple vendors entering the segment.

Autonomous engagement is the third-generation capability now entering operational test. Systems combining onboard target classification, autonomous engagement authorisation against pre-cleared target categories, and networked coordination across multiple defeat assets are being fielded under accelerated acquisition authorities. The CHAOS Industries autonomous engagement system, the Anduril Roadrunner reusable interceptor, and similar platforms represent the operational expression of policy guidance permitting machine-speed engagement decisions against well-defined adversary drone categories within designated geographic zones.

Cyber and electronic warfare integration is the fourth maturation axis. Modern C-UAS systems increasingly incorporate cyber takeover capabilities (D-Fend Solutions EnforceAir) that capture target drones rather than destroying them, preserving the platform for forensic analysis and minimising collateral damage in populated environments. RF protocol-aware jamming has progressed from broadband denial to selective protocol interdiction, allowing C-UAS systems to operate in environments with friendly drone activity without disrupting friendly operations.

The US C-UAS competitive landscape underwent a structural shift in March 2026 when the US Army awarded Anduril the $20 billion counter-UAS enterprise contract with Lattice designated as the tactical command-and-control standard. This award fundamentally changes the competitive map: vendors whose systems are not interoperable with Lattice are progressively excluded from the Army's primary contracting vehicle, while integration partners gain preferential access to the largest single counter-UAS procurement pipeline in US history. The first task order under the enterprise contract was valued at $87 million, with subsequent task orders expected to flow across the 10-year contract horizon.

Pure-play counter-drone vendors face strategic choice points in this environment. DroneShield, an Australia-listed C-UAS pure-play with significant US revenue exposure, has invested in Lattice interoperability while maintaining a differentiated RF detection product line. Epirus, with its Leonidas HPM system, occupies a defensible niche where physics-based capability differentiation reduces the platform-integration pressure. Hidden Level and Fortem Technologies, both in the radar-based detection segment, are positioning as the long-range surveillance layer that complements Lattice tactical engagement, rather than competing directly with it.

The defence prime contractors are entering the counter-UAS segment through acquisition and partnership rather than organic development. L3Harris, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin all have counter-UAS programmes within their broader air and missile defence portfolios, but none has emerged as a dominant standalone C-UAS vendor at the tactical end of the market. The primes' historical advantage in integrated air and missile defence remains decisive at the strategic and theatre-level end of the market, but the tactical and force-protection segment is now defined by software-defined autonomous-systems vendors rather than legacy hardware integrators.

International vendors face elevated barriers to US market entry. NDAA supply-chain provisions, Berry Amendment domestic content requirements, and increasingly stringent ITAR and EAR export controls on autonomous systems narrow the addressable US market for foreign C-UAS vendors. Israeli, European, and Australian vendors compete primarily through US-based subsidiaries with cleared supply chains and substantial domestic content. Chinese vendors are effectively excluded from US federal procurement and increasingly from critical infrastructure procurement under NDAA Section 1709 and the Countering CCP Drones Act.

In August 2026 the Congressional Research Service listed the cost-benefit of posturing Patriot against low-cost drones among potential issues for Congress. Its In Focus brief on the US Army's Patriot Air and Missile Defense System (CRS IF13299, 27 August 2026) lists among those issues the extent to which Patriot is postured against threats it was not designed to counter, giving low-cost drones as the example, the cost-benefit of that posture, and whether more appropriate munitions could be developed or procured. The brief did not find Patriot used inefficiently and gave no per-engagement costs, per Defence Industry Europe's 6 September reporting. CRS notes the Army is reportedly working on newer, more capable and cost-effective Patriot interceptor variants. Reading (inference): if Congress takes up these CRS questions, interest in lower-cost defeat systems could increase; neither source establishes an existing policy opening.

US counter-UAS procurement gained a new mechanism in 2026: an online marketplace run by the Army-led Joint Interagency Task Force 401. Unveiled in February, the counter-UAS marketplace operates on the common hardware systems electronic catalog and uses an Army indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract vehicle, per ExecutiveGov. Through the platform, customers can review performance data, compare systems and make informed decisions based on real-world test results and verified capabilities, per the same reporting, and the marketplace featured about 12 counter-UAS systems as of April 2026 and continues to expand.

By April 2026, JIATF-401 had completed four purchases through the marketplace, worth $13 million combined, which the Department of War announcement described as a milestone in efforts to streamline access to counter-UAS technologies across the department and interagency partners, per ExecutiveGov.

Allied access followed in May 2026: the US secretary of the Army and key leaders from Australia, Poland and the Republic of Korea signed agreements enabling each country to procure counter-UAS technologies through the marketplace, building on collaborations with allies including the UK and Romania, per the official release carried by Soldier Systems Daily. Brigadier General Matt Ross said in the same official release: we are continuing to expand the market for counter-UAS; we understand that our allies and partners want to purchase American-made counter-drone technologies. On this page's reading, catalogue entry is becoming a route to allied as well as US demand for vendors.

The task force's directed-energy pilot moved into operational evaluation in September 2026. The Department of War's 9 September account of JIATF 401's second interagency summit, carried in full by Soldier Systems Daily, states that the task force is conducting a directed-energy pilot program at multiple military installations to evaluate high-energy lasers, high-power microwaves and other novel technologies in an operational environment, and that the summit drew more than 200 leaders and experts from 75 departments and agencies. DefenseScoop's 8 May 2026 report on the pilot's launch named the five installations as Fort Huachuca, Arizona; Fort Bliss, Texas; Naval Base Kitsap, Washington; Grand Forks Air Force Base, North Dakota; and Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri. Army Recognition's 10 September report, citing the department, says JIATF 401 intends to keep directed-energy systems on installations for 365 days with military personnel operating and maintaining them, and that the assessment will record how often equipment remains mission-capable, how much power it consumes and where contractor support is still required. Army Recognition adds that the exact systems assigned to the pilot locations have not been publicly identified, and illustrates the type of equipment available with three existing programmes: AMP-HEL, DE M-SHORAD and IFPC-HPM. The department's own release names no systems, sites or thresholds. On this page's reading, the procurement question is moving from whether a laser or microwave can defeat a drone to whether a base can keep one running for a year.

The task force also published a reference document on 8 September 2026. The Department of War's release, dated 8 September, says JIATF 401 recently published its 2026 Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Quick Reference Guide, establishing a shared baseline of technical and tactical knowledge across the joint force and interagency partners; that the guide provides a common technical baseline for sensors, command and control, and intercepting drones in groups 1-3 in deployed and homeland settings; that it includes a lessons learned section; and that it is formatted as a tactical pocket guide. Brigadier General Matthew Ross, the task force director, is quoted saying there is no silver bullet or single solution to address this challenge. The release names no vendors or systems. The guide does. Drone Intelligence read the 89-page PDF (Version 4, cleared for open publication 27 August 2026, per its cover): its C-sUAS Systems section runs to 37 one-page entries, two of them command-and-control platforms, under a note in capitals that the following systems are not all inclusive; they are what are commonly found in the Services today. The entries name the maker where there is one: Pulsar and Pulsar-L (Anduril), Anvil (Anduril, cued by Lattice), EchoShield (Echodyne), Ninja and Ninja TRx (Black River Systems), Bullfrog (Allen Control Systems), EAGLS (MSI), Locust-HEL (AeroVironment, originally via Blue Halo), CWS-A APKWS (Invariant Corporation), Titan (Blue Halo), EnforceAir2 (D-Fend Solutions), Leonidas (Epirus), Bumblebee (Perennial Autonomy), Dedrone Defender 2 (Dedrone, part of Axon), Dronebuster IV (DZYNE Technologies) and SMASH 2000L (Smart Shooter), alongside programme-of-record entries such as FS-LIDS, M-LIDS, MADIS, L-MADIS, Coyote, AMP-HEL, DRAKE, Roadrunner, Stinger, and the Medusa, Lattice and FAAD command-and-control systems. Performance figures appear only where a maker supplied them (EchoShield up to 25 km detection with a four-radar kit, EnforceAir2 up to 4.5 km detection, Leonidas up to 8 km for LRIP units, DRAKE a demonstrated 400 metres or more); the FS-LIDS entry states that system ranges are classified, and the lessons-learned section is a page of links to service lessons-learned portals rather than a narrative of outcomes. SOFX's 15 September report, which put the count at roughly 40 named commercial systems, is consistent with this read. On this page's reading, a place in the guide is a second form of catalogue entry alongside the marketplace, and one that reaches operators and interagency planners directly; with no prices or fielded quantities, and ranges only where a maker chose to state one, it tells a buyer what is fielded, not how well it works. The full entry-by-entry list is on the US military counter-UAS systems page.

Counter-UAS outside base defence now has a repeated bilateral case on the southern border. Mexico's Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional announced on 7 September 2026 that the binational counter-drone operation Águila Alta is running from 31 August to 21 September 2026 on the Tijuana to San Diego border strip, similar to an operation conducted from 17 to 31 March 2026 between Ciudad Juárez and El Paso. The release describes fixed and mobile counter-drone equipment, concurrent mirror operations with simultaneous reconnaissance along the shared border and each force within its own territory, and the target as commercial drones used by criminals to monitor the authorities during human and drug trafficking. Neither government has identified the systems in use or published detection, defeat or cost figures; reporting that names particular laser systems is not treated as evidence here. The Southwest border corridor identified in the Market Structure section therefore has a named, recurring operating framework, without a public equipment record.

Rapid fielding has a documented Army case in Polar Cascade. The Army's Capability Program Executive for Intelligence and Spectrum Warfare reported on 9 September 2026 that the Accelerate the Procurement and Fielding of Innovative Technologies (APFIT) programme presented its Program of the Year award to Product Manager Army Tactical Exploitation of National Capabilities for Polar Cascade, an effort delivering counter-UAS capabilities, and that 30 of the 49 systems had been provided to the receiving unit. The article says an Army Combatant Command partnered with the product manager to secure APFIT funding, that the programme worked with a small business partner with mature production and sustainment capacity, and that the team was continuously working with soldiers on the ground and incorporating field feedback. The supplier, the system, the contract value and the unit are not named. The case is useful as a fielding mechanism, small-business technology reaching an operational unit through APFIT supplementary funding, and should not be read as a performance or market-share data point.

The JIATF-401 marketplace now has a vehicle-mounted fielding case with a stated timeline. DroneShield announced on 15 September 2026 that its DroneSentry-X Mk2 counter-UAS units had been installed on US military Infantry Squad Vehicles under its JIATF-401 contract, with delivery, vehicle installation, acceptance testing using live uncrewed aircraft and operator training completed approximately 80 days after contract award, which the company says establishes initial operational capability for the deployed technology. Three additional units are planned under a contract modification, per the same release, and Unmanned Airspace carried the milestone on 16 September. The release quotes the JIATF-401 director, Brig. Gen. Matt Ross, on the southern border work continuing alongside USNORTHCOM and JTF-SB, and notes that DroneShield's systems are also listed on the JIATF-401 counter-UAS marketplace. The contract value, the number of vehicles fitted, system performance figures and any operational results are not stated in either source, and the timeline and capability descriptions originate with DroneShield. On this page's reading, the case is evidence of the award-to-accepted-capability path a JIATF-401 contract can run, not of fleet-scale fielding.

An Air Force solicitation lists counter-UAS systems alongside detection and defeat capabilities and peripherals. The combined synopsis and solicitation posted on SAM.gov, FA448426Q0048 from the 87th Contracting Squadron at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey, states that the purchase order will consist of 54 lightweight, low-profile counter-unmanned aerial systems, 18 passive RF detect, track and identify capabilities, 18 portable detect and electronic warfare defeat capabilities and 18 kinetic defeat capability peripherals, as a firm fixed price award under a total small business set-aside. The notice displays a publication date of 24 September 2026, notes the addition of DZYNE Dronebuster DB5 systems for the 87th Air Base Wing, and lists an offers deadline of 28 September 2026 at 1:00 p.m. EDT. It is a solicitation, not an award notice.

Dismounted interception has a prototype buy. Tycho.AI has announced a $900,000, 12-month agreement with US Special Operations Command, awarded through the ANCHOR Other Transaction Agreement, to design, test and deliver ten small-form-factor counter-UAS prototype interceptors for dismounted Special Operations Forces, with new equipment training and multiple live-fire evaluations; the company describes a man-portable quadcopter for point defence against Group 1 and Group 2 threats that it says is designed to operate autonomously from launch to intercept, as reported by Military & Aerospace Electronics on 28 September. The details originate with the company. The cited sources do not provide independent USSOCOM confirmation, interceptor test results or plans for production beyond the ten prototypes.