The race to certify the powered-lift category.

Our assessment: The clearest leader on the Western certification track. Stage 5 means conforming airframes are flying compliance credit with the final stage of type certification underway. Toyota production-system integration and the Blade passenger acquisition give Joby manufacturing credibility and route-network depth most peers lack. The main open question is how quickly FAA-pilot TIA testing is completed.

Anchor: Delta Air Lines, Toyota, Uber/Blade

Our assessment: First to close Phase 3 of the FAA four-phase process (April 2026), but lags Joby on flight hours in the final stage. The UAE Q3 2026 Restricted Type Certificate is a credible commercial-launch hedge if FAA timing slips. United Airlines 200-aircraft commitment plus the Archer Air operator structure make commercialisation strategy more concrete than most. The Boeing deal, expected to close by year-end 2026 pending antitrust and national-security review, would add Wisk's autonomy stack and Insitu's defence UAS revenue rather than cash leaving Archer's balance sheet.

Anchor: United Airlines (200-aircraft order)

Our assessment: The November 2025 IPO raised over $1B, which funds the dual-track CTOL-then-eVTOL approach; raising capital does not by itself show the approach will work. The CX300 fixed-wing variant is closer to TC and gives BETA real revenue runway via cargo customers. The A250 eVTOL trails by roughly a year. UPS, US Air Force, and Amazon's 10.2% holding make BETA the most logistics-leaning thesis in the segment.

Anchor: UPS, US Air Force, Amazon (10.2%)

Our assessment: Stands alone as the only eVTOL maker globally with a full CAAC regulatory stack, Type Certificate, Production Certificate, Airworthiness Certificate, and Air Operator Certificate. The autonomous EH216-S is now in commercial passenger operation in China. The strategic question is not certification but Western market access, given geopolitical headwinds and the absence of any FAA or EASA validation path.

Anchor: Hefei HeYi Aviation JV

Our assessment: Closest behind EHang on the CAAC track. The CarryAll cargo variant already holds a CAAC Type Certificate, and the five-seat Prosperity passenger variant is expected to receive its TC in 2026. EASA progress through the Augsburg base appears to have slipped. Watch CAAC TC issuance as the next material catalyst.

Anchor: Regional Chinese operators

Our assessment: Certification date slipped from 2026 to 2028 at the September 2025 Capital Markets Day, a meaningful reset that older sources do not yet reflect. UK CAA Design Organisation Approval and the two-way piloted transition flight of 14 April 2026 show real technical progress. Funding is less of an open question than it was: a financing package of up to $850 million with Mudrick Capital and Yorkville closed in April 2026 (mostly draw-down facilities rather than cash in hand), and a further approximately $100 million in commitments followed in August 2026. The company reported about $134 million in cash on 13 August 2026 and guided to at least 12 months of runway once the remaining commitments and facility draws are counted. American Airlines, Avolon, JAL, and Gol provide an unusually deep order book for a company at this cert stage.

Anchor: American Airlines, Avolon, JAL, Gol, AirAsia

Our assessment: The bet is uniquely difficult, certify a fully autonomous eVTOL where the autonomy stack itself is the safety case. Stage 3 progress and a now-doubled flight-test fleet show the company is committed to generating the evidence volume the FAA will need. Ownership is now in motion: Boeing and Archer signed a definitive all-stock agreement on 9 August 2026 covering Wisk, Insitu and SkyGrid, with Boeing taking a stake of roughly 19.75% of Archer plus warrants and retaining rights to access Wisk's autonomy stack for its own platforms. The Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period expired on 18 September 2026, and the deal now awaits its remaining regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions, still expected by year-end 2026. Commercial operations targeted at 2030, behind the piloted leaders.

Anchor: Boeing (parent)

Our assessment: The primary certification path runs through Brazil's ANAC, with FAA and EASA validation concurrent, a pragmatic approach given Embraer's regulatory relationships. Fifty test flights by April 2026 is a credible cadence. With $441M cash and 2,700 commitments, Eve is one of the better-funded names. TC across all three regulators is targeted for 2027, not 2026.

Anchor: Embraer, AirX (Tokyo), 2,700 commitments

Our assessment: The March 2026 JCAB agreement on the General Certification Plan is a meaningful procedural milestone, Japan's regulator and SkyDrive are now aligned on how to demonstrate compliance. Commercial launch is honestly positioned at 2028, not earlier. Suzuki manufacturing partnership provides industrial credibility. Limited international ambitions; this is a Japan-domestic play.

Anchor: Suzuki (manufacturing), Toyota City