The race to certify the powered-lift category.

The clearest leader on the Western certification track. Stage 4 entry means an FAA-conforming airframe is now flying with compliance data feeding directly into type certification. Toyota production-system integration and the Blade passenger acquisition give Joby manufacturing credibility and route-network depth most peers lack. Risk sits in pace of FAA-pilot testing, not technical readiness.

Anchor: Delta Air Lines, Toyota, Uber/Blade

Matched Joby on regulatory paperwork — 100% Means of Compliance acceptance is a meaningful technical bar — but lags on flight hours under TIA. The UAE Q3 2026 Restricted Type Certificate is a credible commercial-launch hedge if FAA timing slips. United Airlines 200-aircraft commitment plus the Archer Air operator structure make commercialisation strategy more concrete than most.

Anchor: United Airlines (200-aircraft order)

The November 2025 IPO raised over $1B and validates the dual-track CTOL-then-eVTOL approach. The CX300 fixed-wing variant is closer to TC and gives BETA real revenue runway via cargo customers. The A250 eVTOL trails by roughly a year. UPS, US Air Force, and Amazon's 10.2% holding make BETA the most logistics-leaning thesis in the segment.

Anchor: UPS, US Air Force, Amazon (10.2%)

Stands alone as the only eVTOL maker globally with a full CAAC regulatory stack — Type Certificate, Production Certificate, Airworthiness Certificate, and Air Operator Certificate. The autonomous EH216-S is now in commercial passenger operation in China. The strategic question is not certification but Western market access, given geopolitical headwinds and the absence of any FAA or EASA validation path.

Anchor: Hefei HeYi Aviation JV

Closest behind EHang on the CAAC track. The CarryAll cargo variant already holds a CAAC Type Certificate, and the five-seat Prosperity passenger variant is expected to receive its TC in 2026. EASA progress through the Augsburg base appears to have slipped. Watch CAAC TC issuance as the next material catalyst.

Anchor: Regional Chinese operators

Certification date slipped from 2026 to 2028 at the September 2025 Capital Markets Day, a meaningful reset that older sources do not yet reflect. UK CAA Design Organisation Approval and the permit-to-fly for piloted transition testing show real technical progress. Funding requirement (~$700M) is the binding constraint, not engineering. American Airlines, Avolon, JAL, and Gol provide an unusually deep order book for a company at this cert stage.

Anchor: American Airlines, Avolon, JAL, Gol, AirAsia

The bet is uniquely difficult — certify a fully autonomous eVTOL where the autonomy stack itself is the safety case. Stage 3 progress and a now-doubled flight-test fleet show the company is committed to generating the evidence volume the FAA will need. Boeing parentage provides funding patience no other autonomy-first player has. Commercial operations targeted at 2030, behind the piloted leaders.

Anchor: Boeing (parent)

The primary certification path runs through Brazil's ANAC, with FAA and EASA validation concurrent — a pragmatic approach given Embraer's regulatory relationships. Fifty test flights by April 2026 is a credible cadence. With $441M cash and 2,700 commitments, Eve is one of the better-funded names. TC across all three regulators is targeted for 2027, not 2026.

Anchor: Embraer, AirX (Tokyo), 2,700 commitments

The March 2026 JCAB agreement on the General Certification Plan is a meaningful procedural milestone — Japan's regulator and SkyDrive are now aligned on how to demonstrate compliance. Commercial launch is honestly positioned at 2028, not earlier. Suzuki manufacturing partnership provides industrial credibility. Limited international ambitions; this is a Japan-domestic play.

Anchor: Suzuki (manufacturing), Toyota City